Italy Serie B · 2026-09-11T17:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 4

Empoli vs Arezzo

0 – 1 Full time

18′			Edoardo Biondini
25′			Matteo EganKarim Zedadka
45′			Marco Curto
45′			Alessandro ArenaEmiliano Pattarello
45′			Edoardo BiondiniSimone Romagnoli
62′			Mattia VivianiAlberto Cerri
62′			Pietro CianciLeonardo Mancuso
68′			Steven ShpendiBogdan Popov
72′			Marco Olivierimattia sala
73′			Joseph CeesayLuca Belardinelli
73′			Gerard YepesFilippo Bandinelli
74′			Simone Romagnoli
88′			Shaka Mawuli EkluLuca Chierico
89′			matteo gilli

Stadio Carlo Castellani, EmpoliReferee: M. Fabbri

Empoli

49%

Draw

28%

Arezzo

23%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

10	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	2
45	Possession %	55
3	Corners	4
16	Fouls	15
1	Offsides	0
2	Saves	2
305	Accurate passes	405

Empoli vs Arezzo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Empoli vs Arezzo

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Empoli	Draw	Arezzo
Model	55.9%	24.8%	19.3%
Market	46.2%	28.9%	24.9%
Final	48.6%	27.9%	23.5%
Edge	+9.7%	-4.1%	-5.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Empoli

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.01.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Empoli below the model: +9.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

79%

3+ goals

54%

No goals

Empoli and Arezzo expected goals

Empoli

1.84

Arezzo

1.01

Total expected goals: 2.85

Empoli and Arezzo attack and defence ratings

Empoli

Attack

0.90 -10%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Arezzo

Attack

0.95 -5%

Defence

1.38 +38%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Empoli vs Arezzo: result vs prediction

Empoli 0 – 1 Arezzo

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Italy Serie B

Benevento vs Verona — team news & stats · 2026-09-11
Pisa vs Virtus Entella · 2026-09-11
Padova v Ascoli — match page · 2026-09-12
Sudtirol vs Modena — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Vicenza Virtus vs Juve Stabia · 2026-09-12
Catanzaro v Carrarese — match page · 2026-09-12
Cesena vs Cremonese — team news & stats · 2026-09-12
Avellino vs Palermo · 2026-09-13

Before and after this match

Empoli, previous: Carrarese vs Empoli: odds and pick
Empoli, next: Modena v Empoli analysis
Arezzo, previous: Verona vs Arezzo prediction
Arezzo, next: Arezzo vs Sudtirol prediction

Empoli vs Arezzo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Empoli	48.6%	2.06	+9.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.3%	1.84	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	54.5%	1.83	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	76.5%	1.31	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	44.1%	2.27	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Empoli	48.6%
	Draw	27.9%
	Arezzo	23.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54.3%
	Under 2.5	45.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	54.5%
	No	45.5%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	76.5%
	12 (either side)	72.1%
	X2 (draw or away)	51.4%
Handicap -1	Empoli win	32.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	23.1%
	Loss	44.1%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	11.8%
	2-1	9.9%
	2-0	9.8%

Empoli vs Arezzo stats

Empoli and Arezzo recent form

newest first

Empoli	WLWDDW
Arezzo	LLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Empoli vs Arezzo head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Empoli vs Arezzo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 29.1%, away 24.8%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.10	3.25	3.50
1xBet	2.02	3.25	3.78
888Sport	2.05	3.00	3.60
Bet365	2.00	3.25	3.90
BetVictor	2.05	3.25	3.40
Betano	2.12	3.10	3.90
Betfair	1.95	3.30	4.00
Dafabet	2.08	3.25	3.85
Marathonbet	2.00	3.25	3.78
Pinnacle	2.12	3.26	3.93
SBO	1.98	2.92	3.31
Superbet	2.07	3.20	3.85
Unibet	1.92	3.35	3.95
William Hill	2.05	3.20	3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.04 ▲ +0.30

X 3.25 ▼ -0.21

2 3.78 ▼ -1.12

9 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-07T16:10:02Z.