Padova
vs
Ascoli
1 – 0 Full time
| 33′ | N. Calabro | ||
| 45′ | Marco PompettiNicolas Galazzi | ||
| 45′ | Francesco Di MarianoMatteo Cocchi | ||
| 53′ | Emanuele Zuelli | ||
| 56′ | Christian PastinaAlessandro Capelli | ||
| 59′ | Giacomo De Pieri | ||
| 59′ | Alessandro Dellavalle | ||
| 60′ | Kevin LasagnaGianluca Caprari | ||
| 62′ | Nicholas Rizzo | ||
| 63′ | Nicolas Galazzi | ||
| 71′ | Giacomo De PieriAndrea·Silipo | ||
| 72′ | Don BolsiusMatteo Brunori | ||
| 72′ | amine chakirGabriele Gori | ||
| 72′ | Tommaso MilaneseAndrea Oliveri | ||
| 72′ | Kevin VarasPietro Fusi | ||
| 77′ | Pietro Fusi | ||
| 82′ | Samuele DamianiGennao Acampora | ||
| 90′ | Alessandro Capelli |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 35 | Possession % | 65 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 180 | Accurate passes | 387 |
Padova vs Ascoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Padova vs Ascoli
| Probability | Padova | Draw | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.0% | 29.8% | 35.2% |
| Market | 43.1% | 28.5% | 28.5% |
| Final | 41.1% | 28.8% | 30.2% |
| Edge | -8.1% | +1.3% | +6.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Padova and Ascoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Padova and Ascoli attack and defence ratings
Padova
Ascoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Padova vs Ascoli: result vs prediction
Padova 1 – 0 Ascoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Padova vs Ascoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 41.1% | 2.44 | -8.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 65.0% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 41.1% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Ascoli | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.6% |
| No | 48.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win | 15.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 65.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Padova vs Ascoli stats
Padova vs Ascoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-02 | Padova | Ascoli | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2018-11-10 | Ascoli | Padova | Serie B | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Padova vs Ascoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 28.5%, away 28.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.28 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.13 |
| Betano | 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.31 | 3.48 |
| SBO | 2.18 | 3.09 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .