Palermo
vs
Padova
2 – 1 Full time
| 7′ | Christian Pastina | ||
| 42′ | Niccolo Pierozzi | ||
| 44′ | Dominic Vavassori | ||
| 45′ | Niccolo PierozziTommaso Cassandro | ||
| 45′ | Mattia BaniGiangiacomo Magnani | ||
| 53′ | Alexander SeghettiFrancesco Di Mariano | ||
| 61′ | Matteo Cocchi | ||
| 66′ | Filippo·Ranocchia | ||
| 67′ | Filippo·RanocchiaNahuel Estévez | ||
| 69′ | Matteo CocchiLorenzo Carissoni | ||
| 69′ | Luca MoroKevin Lasagna | ||
| 76′ | Jacopo SegreClaudio Gomes | ||
| 82′ | Joel PohjanpaloAlessandro Gabrielloni | ||
| 83′ | Dominic Vavassori | ||
| 84′ | Giovanni·GiuntiNicolas Galazzi | ||
| 84′ | Emanuele ZuelliMattia Bortolussi | ||
| 90′ | Lorenzo Carissoni |
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 47 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Offsides | 5 |
| 4 | Saves | 5 |
| 312 | Accurate passes | 271 |
Palermo vs Padova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palermo vs Padova
| Probability | Palermo | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.2% | 22.6% | 13.1% |
| Market | 60.6% | 22.7% | 16.7% |
| Final | 61.5% | 22.7% | 15.8% |
| Edge | +3.7% | -0.1% | -3.6% |
Why Palermo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palermo below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palermo and Padova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Palermo and Padova attack and defence ratings
Palermo
Padova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palermo vs Padova: result vs prediction
Palermo 2 – 1 Padova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palermo vs Padova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 61.5% | 1.63 | +3.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 61.5% |
| Draw | 22.7% | |
| Padova | 15.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.0% |
| No | 52.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 40.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 35.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | |
| 1-1 | 10.8% |
Palermo vs Padova stats
Palermo vs Padova head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Padova | Palermo | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Palermo | Padova | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2022-06-12 | Palermo | Padova | Serie C - Girone A | 1-0 |
| 2022-06-05 | Padova | Palermo | Serie C - Girone A | 0-1 |
| 2019-04-22 | Palermo | Padova | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2018-12-08 | Padova | Palermo | Serie B | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palermo vs Padova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.6%, draw 22.7%, away 16.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.59 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.15 | 5.90 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.31 | 5.77 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.61 | 4.56 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .