Empoli
vs
Palermo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palermo
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Empoli vs Palermo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Empoli vs Palermo
| Probability | Empoli | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.2% | 27.9% | 46.9% |
| Market | 25.9% | 26.6% | 47.6% |
| Final | 25.7% | 26.9% | 47.4% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +1.3% | -0.6% |
Why Palermo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Empoli vs Palermo match preview
Empoli faces Palermo in this Serie B matchup, with the model indicating a 25% chance of an Empoli victory, a 28% chance of a draw, and a 47% likelihood of a Palermo win. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Empoli might score around 1.07, while Palermo is projected to net approximately 1.54.
Recent form shows Empoli with two losses, a win, another loss, and a draw in their last five matches, while Palermo is on a strong run, winning their last four games and drawing one. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Empoli has not secured a win, with Palermo winning both matches. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating moderate certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Empoli and Palermo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Empoli and Palermo attack and defence ratings
Empoli
Palermo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Empoli vs Palermo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 47.4% | 2.11 | -0.6% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Empoli | 25.7% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Palermo | 47.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.9% |
| No | 47.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Empoli vs Palermo stats
Empoli and Palermo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Empoli and Palermo season so far
Empoli record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palermo record
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Empoli vs Palermo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Palermo | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Empoli | Palermo | Italy Serie B | 1-3 |
| 2018-02-02 | Empoli | Palermo | Serie B | 4-0 |
| 2017-09-09 | Palermo | Empoli | Serie B | 3-3 |
| 2017-05-28 | Palermo | Empoli | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2017-01-07 | Empoli | Palermo | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2016-03-19 | Empoli | Palermo | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2015-11-02 | Palermo | Empoli | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2015-03-01 | Palermo | Empoli | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2014-10-05 | Empoli | Palermo | Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Empoli vs Palermo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.9%, draw 26.6%, away 47.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 3.52 | 1.97 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.65 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.65 | 1.99 |
| Marathonbet | 3.60 | 3.52 | 1.95 |
| Pinnacle | 3.83 | 3.45 | 2.00 |
| SBO | 3.10 | 3.14 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .