Sudtirol
vs
Ascoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sudtirol
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Sudtirol vs Ascoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sudtirol vs Ascoli
| Probability | Sudtirol | Draw | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.8% | 29.7% | 27.5% |
| Market | 38.0% | 29.9% | 32.1% |
| Final | 39.2% | 29.8% | 31.0% |
| Edge | +4.8% | -0.1% | -4.7% |
Why Sudtirol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Sudtirol below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.61, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sudtirol vs Ascoli match preview
Sudtirol faces Ascoli in a Serie B matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model assigns a 43% probability of a Sudtirol victory, while a draw stands at 30% and Ascoli at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Sudtirol, with an 11% probability. Both teams have a 50% chance of scoring, and there is a 43% likelihood that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of expected goals, Sudtirol is projected to score 1.37, while Ascoli is expected to net 1.05. Recent form shows Sudtirol with three wins, two draws, and one loss, while Ascoli has two wins, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sudtirol and Ascoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.41
Sudtirol and Ascoli attack and defence ratings
Sudtirol
Ascoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sudtirol vs Ascoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 39.2% | 2.55 | +4.8% | 2.61 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.7% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 39.2% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Ascoli | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sudtirol win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 57.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.0% | |
| 0-0 | 10.2% |
Sudtirol vs Ascoli stats
Sudtirol and Ascoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sudtirol and Ascoli season so far
Sudtirol record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Ascoli record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Sudtirol vs Ascoli head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-04 | Ascoli | Sudtirol | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-02 | Sudtirol | Ascoli | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2023-04-15 | Ascoli | Sudtirol | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2022-11-27 | Sudtirol | Ascoli | Serie B | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sudtirol vs Ascoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.0%, draw 29.9%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.50 | 3.05 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.10 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.50 | 3.05 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.08 | 2.93 |
| SBO | 2.27 | 2.98 | 2.67 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .