Ascoli
vs
Avellino
3 – 1 Full time
| 11′ | L. Di Maggio | ||
| 17′ | Raffaele Russo | ||
| 45′ | Nicholas Rizzo | ||
| 45′ | Brando MoruzziMarco Sala | ||
| 49′ | Patrick Enrici | ||
| 60′ | Giovanni Corradini | ||
| 66′ | Don BolsiusGiacomo De Pieri | ||
| 66′ | Giovanni CorradiniGabriele Gori | ||
| 67′ | Matteo BrunoriAndrea Oliveri | ||
| 68′ | L. Di MaggioDimitrios Sounas | ||
| 72′ | Andrea·Silipo | ||
| 79′ | Michele Besaggio | ||
| 80′ | Patrick EnriciTommaso Biasci | ||
| 80′ | Walid CheddiraLuca Pandolfi | ||
| 81′ | Tommaso MilaneseGennao Acampora | ||
| 86′ | Andrea·Silipo | ||
| 88′ | Andrea·SilipoFederico Gattoni | ||
| 88′ | Michele BesaggioS. Di Paolo |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 63 | Possession % | 37 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 433 | Accurate passes | 231 |
Ascoli vs Avellino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ascoli vs Avellino
| Probability | Ascoli | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.6% | 30.7% | 26.7% |
| Market | 44.5% | 29.1% | 26.3% |
| Final | 44.0% | 29.5% | 26.4% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +1.6% | +0.4% |
Why Ascoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ascoli and Avellino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Ascoli and Avellino attack and defence ratings
Ascoli
Avellino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ascoli vs Avellino: result vs prediction
Ascoli 3 – 1 Avellino
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ascoli vs Avellino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 44.0% | 2.27 | -1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 44.0% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Avellino | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.6% |
| No | 53.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 57.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.0% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Ascoli vs Avellino stats
Ascoli vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-05 | Ascoli | Avellino | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2017-12-16 | Avellino | Ascoli | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2017-04-25 | Ascoli | Avellino | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2016-12-03 | Avellino | Ascoli | Serie B | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ascoli vs Avellino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 29.0%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.20 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.18 | 3.23 | 3.78 |
| SBO | 2.06 | 2.99 | 3.02 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .