Avellino
vs
Palermo
1 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | Tommaso CancellottiFilippo Missori | ||
| 35′ | Mattia Bani | ||
| 56′ | Filippo Missori | ||
| 57′ | Luca PandolfiWalid Cheddira | ||
| 59′ | Emmanuel GyasiDennis Johnsen | ||
| 59′ | Jacopo SegreNahuel Estévez | ||
| 60′ | Walid Cheddira | ||
| 63′ | Dennis Johnsen | ||
| 76′ | Filippo·RanocchiaClaudio Gomes | ||
| 77′ | Joel PohjanpaloAlessandro Gabrielloni | ||
| 84′ | Michael Venturi | ||
| 86′ | Brando MoruzziMarco Sala | ||
| 86′ | L. Di MaggioDimitrios Sounas | ||
| 87′ | Raffaele RussoTommaso Biasci | ||
| 87′ | Tommaso CassandroNiccolo Pierozzi |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 348 | Accurate passes | 401 |
Avellino vs Palermo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avellino vs Palermo
| Probability | Avellino | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.9% | 27.8% | 41.3% |
| Market | 24.3% | 29.1% | 46.6% |
| Final | 25.9% | 28.8% | 45.3% |
| Edge | +6.6% | -1.3% | -5.3% |
Why Palermo
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avellino and Palermo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Avellino and Palermo attack and defence ratings
Avellino
Palermo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Avellino vs Palermo: result vs prediction
Avellino 1 – 1 Palermo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Avellino vs Palermo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 45.3% | 2.21 | -5.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.7% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 25.9% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Palermo | 45.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.4% |
| No | 43.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 20.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 58.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 0-1 | 8.4% |
Avellino vs Palermo stats
Avellino vs Palermo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Palermo | Avellino | Italy Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Avellino | Palermo | Italy Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2022-03-13 | Avellino | Palermo | Serie C - Girone C | 1-2 |
| 2021-10-31 | Palermo | Avellino | Serie C - Girone C | 1-1 |
| 2021-05-26 | Avellino | Palermo | Serie C - Girone A | 1-0 |
| 2021-05-23 | Palermo | Avellino | Serie C - Girone A | 1-0 |
| 2021-02-07 | Avellino | Palermo | Serie C - Girone C | 1-0 |
| 2020-10-11 | Palermo | Avellino | Serie C - Girone C | 0-2 |
| 2018-04-21 | Palermo | Avellino | Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2017-11-25 | Avellino | Palermo | Serie B | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avellino vs Palermo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 25.0%, draw 28.9%, away 46.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.52 |
| 1xBet | 3.84 | 3.22 | 2.01 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.20 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.70 | 3.15 | 2.07 |
| Marathonbet | 3.85 | 3.22 | 1.99 |
| Pinnacle | 4.07 | 3.24 | 2.08 |
| SBO | 3.19 | 2.98 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .