Palermo
vs
Sampdoria
3 – 1 Full time
| 9′ | Gabriel Strefezza | ||
| 18′ | Liam Henderson | ||
| 18′ | Lorenzo Insigne | ||
| 21′ | Gabriel StrefezzaDominic Vavassori | ||
| 33′ | Joel Pohjanpalo | ||
| 45′ | HernaniAntonio Palumbo | ||
| 47′ | Mattia Bani | ||
| 53′ | Danel SinaniTjas Begic | ||
| 63′ | Lorenzo Insigne | ||
| 65′ | Niccolo PierozziTommaso Cassandro | ||
| 65′ | Filippo·RanocchiaNahuel Estévez | ||
| 70′ | Lorenzo InsigneOliver Abildgaard | ||
| 83′ | Yari VerschaerenLorenzo Mezzotero | ||
| 84′ | Joel PohjanpaloAlessandro Gabrielloni | ||
| 90′ | Antonio Palumbo | ||
| 90′ | Antonio Palumbo | ||
| 90′ | Manuel Cicconi |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 4 | Saves | 3 |
| 333 | Accurate passes | 404 |
Palermo vs Sampdoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palermo vs Sampdoria
| Probability | Palermo | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.6% | 20.8% | 9.5% |
| Market | 57.0% | 24.9% | 18.1% |
| Final | 60.2% | 23.9% | 15.9% |
| Edge | +12.7% | -4.1% | -8.5% |
Why Palermo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Palermo below the model: +12.7 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palermo and Sampdoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Palermo and Sampdoria attack and defence ratings
Palermo
Sampdoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palermo vs Sampdoria: result vs prediction
Palermo 3 – 1 Sampdoria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palermo vs Sampdoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 60.2% | 1.66 | +12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 60.2% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Sampdoria | 15.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.0% |
| No | 58.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 45.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 30.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 13.0% | |
| 1-1 | 9.8% |
Palermo vs Sampdoria stats
Palermo vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Sampdoria | Palermo | Italy Serie B | 3-3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Palermo | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-08 | Sampdoria | Palermo | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Palermo | Sampdoria | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2024-05-17 | Palermo | Sampdoria | Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-06 | Palermo | Sampdoria | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-04 | Sampdoria | Palermo | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2017-02-26 | Palermo | Sampdoria | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2016-10-02 | Sampdoria | Palermo | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2016-05-01 | Palermo | Sampdoria | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palermo vs Sampdoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.0%, draw 24.9%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.78 | 5.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.66 | 3.91 | 5.60 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.64 | 4.84 |
| Superbet | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.15 |
| Unibet | 1.71 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .