Mantova
vs
Sampdoria
2 – 0 Full time
| 16′ | Fahem Benaissa Yahia | ||
| 28′ | Lorenzo Insigne | ||
| 43′ | Francesco Modesto | ||
| 44′ | Liam Henderson | ||
| 45′ | Tjas BegicOliver Abildgaard | ||
| 55′ | Ettore GliozziVanja Vlahovic | ||
| 55′ | Lorenzo IgnacchitiJean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo | ||
| 57′ | Gennaro TutinoTobias Lauritsen | ||
| 58′ | Francesco Ruocco | ||
| 66′ | Jean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo | ||
| 72′ | Rares IlieDavide Bragantini | ||
| 72′ | Francesco RuoccoIsmael Cajazzo | ||
| 72′ | Liam HendersonYann Karamoh | ||
| 72′ | Lorenzo InsigneDanel Sinani |
Match stats
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 51 | Possession % | 49 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Offsides | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 427 | Accurate passes | 373 |
Mantova vs Sampdoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mantova vs Sampdoria
| Probability | Mantova | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 21.3% | 13.2% |
| Market | 44.5% | 29.8% | 25.7% |
| Final | 49.8% | 27.7% | 22.6% |
| Edge | +21.0% | -8.4% | -12.5% |
Why Mantova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mantova below the model: +21.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mantova and Sampdoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Mantova and Sampdoria attack and defence ratings
Mantova
Sampdoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mantova vs Sampdoria: result vs prediction
Mantova 2 – 0 Sampdoria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mantova vs Sampdoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 49.8% | 2.01 | +21.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 49.8% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Sampdoria | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.8% |
| No | 48.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Mantova vs Sampdoria stats
Mantova vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Mantova | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Sampdoria | Mantova | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Mantova | Sampdoria | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Sampdoria | Mantova | Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mantova vs Sampdoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.5%, draw 29.8%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.14 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.14 | 3.64 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.14 | 3.64 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.15 | 3.77 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 2.90 | 2.96 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .