Mantova
vs
Pisa
2 – 2 Full time
| 8′ | Ettore Gliozzi | ||
| 38′ | Filippo Pittarello | ||
| 43′ | Antonio Caracciolo | ||
| 53′ | Alessio Castellini | ||
| 54′ | Jonathan Silva Pertinhes | ||
| 55′ | Francesco RuoccoDavide Bragantini | ||
| 55′ | Rares IlieIsmael Cajazzo | ||
| 57′ | Stefano Moreo | ||
| 64′ | Ettore GliozziVanja Vlahovic | ||
| 65′ | Giuseppe LeoneIsak Vural | ||
| 70′ | Stefano MoreoAndrea Petagna | ||
| 70′ | Matteo TramoniEmanuele Rao | ||
| 71′ | Francesco Modesto | ||
| 80′ | Jonathan Silva PertinhesFederico Chinetti | ||
| 80′ | Lorenzo IgnacchitiJean-Pierre Longonda Itamba Mboyo | ||
| 80′ | Andrea PrimassoArturo Calabresi | ||
| 80′ | Simone ZanonTomás Esteves | ||
| 87′ | Alessandro Confente | ||
| 89′ | Arturo Calabresi | ||
| 89′ | Ismael Cajazzo | ||
| 90′ | Stefano Cella | ||
| 90′ | Vanja Vlahovic |
Match stats
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 386 | Accurate passes | 201 |
Mantova vs Pisa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mantova vs Pisa
| Probability | Mantova | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76.9% | 14.8% | 8.3% |
| Market | 34.7% | 29.1% | 36.3% |
| Final | 45.2% | 25.5% | 29.3% |
| Edge | +42.2% | -14.3% | -27.9% |
Why Mantova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.83 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mantova below the model: +42.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mantova and Pisa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Mantova and Pisa attack and defence ratings
Mantova
Pisa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mantova vs Pisa: result vs prediction
Mantova 2 – 2 Pisa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mantova vs Pisa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 45.2% | 2.21 | +42.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 45.2% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Pisa | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 57.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 23.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.6% |
| 3-0 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 8.6% |
Mantova vs Pisa stats
Mantova vs Pisa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-16 | Pisa | Mantova | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Mantova | Pisa | Serie B | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mantova vs Pisa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.7%, draw 29.1%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.22 | 2.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.22 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 2.75 | 3.31 | 2.72 |
| SBO | 2.60 | 3.08 | 2.50 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .