Catanzaro
vs
Carrarese
1 – 0 Full time
| 40′ | Luka Topalovic | ||
| 45′ | Bruno VerrengiaMarco Imperiale | ||
| 53′ | Nicola Mosti | ||
| 56′ | Gabriele parlanti | ||
| 62′ | Gabriele Cioffi | ||
| 67′ | Luka TopalovicTommaso Rubino | ||
| 67′ | Moustapha CisseG. Marconi | ||
| 67′ | Emanuele PecorinoN'Dri Koffi | ||
| 67′ | Nicola MostiFranky Tchaouna | ||
| 67′ | Marco RuggeroAntonio Candela | ||
| 76′ | Jacopo MartiniMatthias Braunöder | ||
| 76′ | Gabriele parlantiNicolo Cudrig | ||
| 78′ | Franky Tchaouna | ||
| 81′ | Mehdi DorvalAlejo Garnica | ||
| 83′ | Pietro Lemmello | ||
| 87′ | Nicolas SchiaviNicholas Bonfanti |
Match stats
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 67 | Possession % | 33 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 591 | Accurate passes | 244 |
Catanzaro vs Carrarese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Catanzaro vs Carrarese
| Probability | Catanzaro | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.0% | 26.3% | 22.6% |
| Market | 48.0% | 28.4% | 23.6% |
| Final | 48.8% | 27.8% | 23.4% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -2.1% | -1.0% |
Why Catanzaro
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Catanzaro below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Catanzaro and Carrarese expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Catanzaro and Carrarese attack and defence ratings
Catanzaro
Carrarese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Catanzaro vs Carrarese: result vs prediction
Catanzaro 1 – 0 Carrarese
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Catanzaro vs Carrarese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Catanzaro | 48.8% | 2.05 | +3.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.9% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Catanzaro | 48.8% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Carrarese | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Catanzaro win | 28.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 48.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 9.5% |
Catanzaro vs Carrarese stats
Catanzaro vs Carrarese head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Carrarese | Catanzaro | Italy Serie B | 3-3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Catanzaro | Carrarese | Italy Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Carrarese | Catanzaro | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-01 | Catanzaro | Carrarese | Serie B | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Catanzaro vs Carrarese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.8%, draw 27.6%, away 23.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.45 | 3.95 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.40 | 3.96 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.50 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.98 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.53 | 4.18 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 3.24 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .