Modena
vs
Avellino
0 – 1 Full time
| 8′ | M. Besaggio | ||
| 19′ | A. FavilliW. Cheddira | ||
| 34′ | Francesco Zampano | ||
| 38′ | Lorenco Šimić | ||
| 46′ | F. ZampanoP. Azzi | ||
| 46′ | F. MissoriT. Cancellotti | ||
| 46′ | L. SimicM. Venturi | ||
| 63′ | G. BrugmanL. Bacchin | ||
| 65′ | M. BesaggioD. Sounas | ||
| 76′ | Giuseppe Ambrosino | ||
| 77′ | G. CasoD. Montevago | ||
| 77′ | L. Di MaggioT. Berenbruch | ||
| 86′ | S. NadorF. Folino | ||
| 86′ | S. SantoroK. Bozhanaj | ||
| 87′ | Kleis Bozhanaj | ||
| 90′ | Tommaso Martinelli |
Match stats
| 43 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 62 | Possession % | 38 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Saves | 10 |
| 453 | Accurate passes | 242 |
Modena vs Avellino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Modena vs Avellino
| Probability | Modena | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 26.5% | 20.8% |
| Market | 54.3% | 26.9% | 18.8% |
| Final | 54.0% | 26.8% | 19.3% |
| Edge | -1.6% | -0.4% | +2.0% |
Why Modena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.98.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Modena and Avellino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Modena and Avellino attack and defence ratings
Modena
Avellino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Modena vs Avellino: result vs prediction
Modena 0 – 1 Avellino
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Modena vs Avellino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 54.0% | 1.85 | -1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 54.0% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Avellino | 19.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.0% |
| No | 48.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Modena vs Avellino stats
Modena vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Avellino | Modena | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Modena | Avellino | Italy Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Modena vs Avellino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 26.9%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.48 | 4.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.48 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.53 | 5.46 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .