Avellino
vs
Sampdoria
4 – 1 Full time
Avellino vs Sampdoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avellino vs Sampdoria
| Probability | Avellino | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 29.4% | 19.9% |
| Market | 34.8% | 30.5% | 34.7% |
| Final | 38.8% | 30.2% | 31.0% |
| Edge | +15.9% | -1.1% | -14.8% |
Why Avellino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Avellino below the model: +15.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avellino and Sampdoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Avellino and Sampdoria attack and defence ratings
Avellino
Sampdoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Avellino vs Sampdoria: result vs prediction
Avellino 4 – 1 Sampdoria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Avellino vs Sampdoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 38.8% | 2.58 | +15.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 38.8% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Sampdoria | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.6% |
| No | 56.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avellino win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.9% |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Avellino vs Sampdoria stats
Avellino and Sampdoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avellino and Sampdoria going into this match
Avellino record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sampdoria record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Avellino vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Sampdoria | Avellino | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Avellino | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avellino vs Sampdoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 30.5%, away 34.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.67 | 3.04 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.72 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.04 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.05 | 2.86 |
| SBO | 2.54 | 3.07 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .