Benevento
vs
Cesena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benevento
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Benevento vs Cesena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benevento vs Cesena
| Probability | Benevento | Draw | Cesena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.4% | 23.9% | 19.6% |
| Market | 49.6% | 26.5% | 23.9% |
| Final | 51.3% | 25.9% | 22.8% |
| Edge | +6.8% | -2.6% | -4.2% |
Why Benevento
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benevento below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Benevento vs Cesena match preview
Benevento hosts Cesena in this Serie B matchup, with model probabilities favoring the home side at 56%, while a draw stands at 24% and Cesena at 20%. The expected goals for Benevento are 1.94, compared to 1.08 for Cesena, indicating a potential advantage for the home team in offensive output.
Recent form shows Benevento with two wins in their last six matches (W-W-L-D-L-L), while Cesena has drawn four of their last five (D-D-D-W-D-L). The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Benevento, with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for these probabilities is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benevento and Cesena expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Benevento and Cesena attack and defence ratings
Benevento
Cesena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benevento vs Cesena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 51.3% | 1.95 | +6.8% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 51.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Cesena | 22.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win | 33.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.2% |
Benevento vs Cesena stats
Benevento and Cesena recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benevento and Cesena season so far
Benevento record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cesena record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Benevento vs Cesena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-04-25 | Cesena | Benevento | Serie B | 4-1 |
| 2016-12-05 | Benevento | Cesena | Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Benevento vs Cesena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.6%, draw 26.5%, away 23.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 3.58 | 3.95 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.92 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.84 | 3.58 | 3.96 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.62 | 3.91 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.11 | 3.28 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .