Padova
vs
Carrarese
Garuda Lions Prediction: Padova
1 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Padova vs Carrarese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Padova vs Carrarese
| Probability | Padova | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 33.1% | 20.1% |
| Market | 47.9% | 27.9% | 24.2% |
| Final | 47.6% | 29.2% | 23.2% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +5.2% | -4.1% |
Why Padova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.19 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Padova vs Carrarese match preview
Padova will host Carrarese in a Serie B clash on October 11, 2026, with the model indicating a 47% probability of a home win for Padova, while a draw stands at 33% and Carrarese at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Padova, with a 17% chance of occurring. Expected goals suggest Padova will generate 1.19, compared to Carrarese's 0.69, highlighting a potential disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Padova has recorded a mixed bag of results with one win, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. Conversely, Carrarese has struggled significantly, losing all of their last six games, with one draw included. Historically, Padova has the upper hand in their last two encounters, securing one win and one draw against Carrarese, who has yet to claim victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Padova and Carrarese expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.88
Padova and Carrarese attack and defence ratings
Padova
Carrarese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Padova vs Carrarese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 47.6% | 2.10 | -1.1% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.3% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 47.6% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Carrarese | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.9% |
| No | 64.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.5% | |
| Loss | 53.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.9% |
| 0-0 | 16.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Padova vs Carrarese stats
Padova vs Carrarese head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Padova | Carrarese | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Carrarese | Padova | Italy Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Padova vs Carrarese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.9%, draw 27.9%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.32 | 3.86 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.32 | 3.86 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.31 | 4.19 |
| SBO | 1.90 | 3.07 | 3.36 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.25 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .