Padova
vs
Carrarese
0 – 2 Full time
| 14′ | Tommaso Rubino | ||
| 40′ | Filippo Oliana | ||
| 45′ | Fabio abiusoG. Marconi | ||
| 45′ | Mattia BortolussiGabriele Artistico | ||
| 51′ | Jonas Rouhi | ||
| 51′ | Gianluca Caprari | ||
| 56′ | Matteo CocchiFrancesco Di Mariano | ||
| 56′ | Gianluca CaprariMarco Pompetti | ||
| 60′ | Tommaso RubinoLuka Topalovic | ||
| 62′ | Matthias Braunöder | ||
| 67′ | Pietro FusiNicolas Galazzi | ||
| 72′ | Nicolas SchiaviJacopo Martini | ||
| 72′ | Jonas RouhiT. Guercio | ||
| 79′ | Luca MoroAlexander Seghetti | ||
| 80′ | Niccolò Belloni | ||
| 82′ | Gabriele parlanti | ||
| 90′ | Gabriele parlantiNicolo Cudrig |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 484 | Accurate passes | 361 |
Padova vs Carrarese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Padova vs Carrarese
| Probability | Padova | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.6% | 33.2% | 20.2% |
| Market | 49.3% | 27.6% | 23.1% |
| Final | 48.6% | 29.0% | 22.4% |
| Edge | -0.7% | +1.4% | -0.7% |
Why Padova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.18 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Padova and Carrarese expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.88
Padova and Carrarese attack and defence ratings
Padova
Carrarese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Padova vs Carrarese: result vs prediction
Padova 0 – 2 Carrarese
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Padova vs Carrarese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 48.6% | 2.06 | -0.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 48.6% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Carrarese | 22.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.9% |
| No | 64.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.9% |
| 0-0 | 16.6% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Padova vs Carrarese stats
Padova and Carrarese recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Padova and Carrarese going into this match
Padova record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carrarese record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Padova vs Carrarese head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-10 | Padova | Carrarese | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Carrarese | Padova | Italy Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Padova vs Carrarese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.3%, draw 27.6%, away 23.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.89 | 3.34 | 4.14 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.45 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.87 | 3.34 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.34 | 4.63 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.11 | 3.49 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .