Cesena
vs
Avellino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cesena
1 – 0 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Cesena vs Avellino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cesena vs Avellino
| Probability | Cesena | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.3% | 28.8% | 40.0% |
| Market | 40.7% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| Final | 38.3% | 29.5% | 32.2% |
| Edge | -9.5% | -0.9% | +10.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Cesena vs Avellino match preview
Cesena faces Avellino in a Serie B clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Cesena's last five matches include one win and four draws, while Avellino has two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five outings. The probabilities suggest Cesena has a 38% chance of winning, with a 30% likelihood of a draw and Avellino at 32%. The expected goals for the match are 1.21 for Cesena and 1.39 for Avellino.
Historically, the last two encounters between these teams have resulted in one win for each side, indicating a competitive matchup. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Cesena, with a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cesena and Avellino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Cesena and Avellino attack and defence ratings
Cesena
Avellino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cesena vs Avellino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 38.3% | 2.61 | -9.5% | 2.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.7% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 38.3% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Avellino | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.8% |
| No | 46.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cesena win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 68.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 9.1% | |
| 0-0 | 8.7% |
Cesena vs Avellino stats
Cesena and Avellino recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cesena and Avellino season so far
Cesena record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Avellino record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cesena vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Avellino | Cesena | Italy Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Cesena | Avellino | Italy Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2018-02-10 | Avellino | Cesena | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2017-09-15 | Cesena | Avellino | Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2017-04-22 | Avellino | Cesena | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2016-11-26 | Cesena | Avellino | Serie B | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cesena vs Avellino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 29.3%, away 29.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.14 | 3.16 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.14 | 3.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.14 | 3.27 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.08 | 2.89 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .