Avellino
vs
Padova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Avellino
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Avellino vs Padova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avellino vs Padova
| Probability | Avellino | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.3% | 26.7% | 18.1% |
| Market | 42.9% | 28.6% | 28.5% |
| Final | 46.0% | 28.1% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +12.4% | -1.9% | -10.5% |
Why Avellino
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Avellino below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Avellino vs Padova match preview
Avellino enters the match against Padova with a probability of 46% to win, while Padova has a 26% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0 in favor of Avellino, with an expected goals tally of 1.66 for Avellino compared to 0.85 for Padova. Recent form shows Avellino with two wins in their last five matches, while Padova has struggled, recording three losses and only one win in the same period.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, the model indicates a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record over the last two encounters favors Avellino, who has one win and one draw against Padova, who has yet to secure a win in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avellino and Padova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.51
Avellino and Padova attack and defence ratings
Avellino
Padova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Avellino vs Padova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 46.0% | 2.18 | +12.4% | 2.19 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.7% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 46.0% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Padova | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Avellino win | 30.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 44.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.6% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 2-0 | 11.2% |
Avellino vs Padova stats
Avellino and Padova recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avellino and Padova season so far
Avellino record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Padova record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avellino vs Padova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Avellino | Padova | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Padova | Avellino | Italy Serie B | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Avellino vs Padova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 28.6%, away 28.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.19 | 3.25 | 3.27 |
| Marathonbet | 2.17 | 3.25 | 3.26 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 |