Sudtirol
vs
Sampdoria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sudtirol
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sudtirol vs Sampdoria
| Probability | Sudtirol | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.5% | 25.8% | 12.7% |
| Market | 37.6% | 29.5% | 32.8% |
| Final | 43.6% | 28.6% | 27.8% |
| Edge | +23.8% | -3.7% | -20.1% |
Why Sudtirol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sudtirol below the model: +23.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.47, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria match preview
Sudtirol hosts Sampdoria in a Serie B clash on October 24, 2026. According to our model, Sudtirol has a 44% probability of winning, while Sampdoria stands at 28%, with a 29% chance of a draw. The expected goals are 1.67 for Sudtirol and 0.63 for Sampdoria, indicating a stronger attacking performance anticipated from the home side. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, projected at 16%.
In terms of recent form, Sudtirol has recorded a mixed bag with three draws, a win, and a loss in their last five matches, while Sampdoria has struggled, with one win and four losses in their last five outings. The head-to-head record shows each team winning once in their last two encounters, suggesting a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sudtirol and Sampdoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
Sudtirol and Sampdoria attack and defence ratings
Sudtirol
Sampdoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 43.6% | 2.29 | +23.8% | 2.47 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 43.6% |
| Draw | 28.6% | |
| Sampdoria | 27.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.2% |
| No | 60.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sudtirol win | 35.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 38.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.6% |
| 2-0 | 13.9% | |
| 1-1 | 11.6% |
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria stats
Sudtirol and Sampdoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sudtirol and Sampdoria season so far
Sudtirol record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Sampdoria record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Sampdoria | Sudtirol | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Sudtirol | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sudtirol vs Sampdoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.6%, draw 29.5%, away 32.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.15 | 2.83 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.15 | 2.83 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.80 |