Ascoli
vs
Sampdoria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ascoli
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.71.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Ascoli vs Sampdoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ascoli vs Sampdoria
| Probability | Ascoli | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.7% | 23.7% | 12.6% |
| Market | 40.9% | 28.1% | 31.0% |
| Final | 46.6% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| Edge | +5.7% | -1.1% | -4.6% |
Why Ascoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ascoli below our published probability: +5.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.1% per unit staked (our 46.6% × 2.32 − 1).
Ascoli vs Sampdoria match preview
Ascoli faces Sampdoria in a Serie B clash with a strong probability of victory for the home side, as Ascoli is projected to win 64% of the time. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Ascoli's expected goals stand at 1.86, while Sampdoria is significantly lower at 0.71, reflecting their recent struggles.
Recent form shows Ascoli with two draws and two wins in their last six matches, while Sampdoria has lost five of their last six, including four consecutive defeats. The model indicates a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially low-scoring affair given Sampdoria's current form.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ascoli and Sampdoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Ascoli and Sampdoria attack and defence ratings
Ascoli
Sampdoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ascoli vs Sampdoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 46.6% | 2.15 | +5.7% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 38.8% | 2.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 46.6% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Sampdoria | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 38.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 36.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.2% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
Ascoli vs Sampdoria stats
Ascoli and Sampdoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ascoli and Sampdoria season so far
Ascoli record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Sampdoria record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Ascoli vs Sampdoria head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Ascoli vs Sampdoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 28.1%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.30 | 3.02 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .