Arezzo
vs
Ascoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ascoli
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.99.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Arezzo vs Ascoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arezzo vs Ascoli
| Probability | Arezzo | Draw | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.5% | 23.5% | 59.1% |
| Market | 34.3% | 29.4% | 36.3% |
| Final | 30.1% | 27.9% | 42.0% |
| Edge | -4.2% | -1.5% | +5.7% |
Why Ascoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ascoli below our published probability: +5.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.1% per unit staked (our 42.0% × 2.55 − 1).
Arezzo vs Ascoli match preview
Arezzo faces Ascoli in an upcoming Serie B match, with the probabilities from our model indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Arezzo has an 18% chance of winning, while Ascoli is favored at 59%, with a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2 in favor of Ascoli, which aligns with the expected goals of 0.99 for Arezzo and 1.97 for Ascoli.
In terms of recent form, Arezzo has recorded results of L-W-D-L-W-L, while Ascoli has shown more consistency with W-D-D-W-L-W. Our model suggests a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score, indicating a potentially competitive match despite Arezzo's struggles.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arezzo and Ascoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Arezzo and Ascoli attack and defence ratings
Arezzo
Ascoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Arezzo vs Ascoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 42.0% | 2.38 | +5.7% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.1% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arezzo | 30.1% |
| Draw | 27.9% | |
| Ascoli | 42.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 36.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 40.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 0-2 | 10.0% | |
| 1-2 | 10.0% |
Arezzo vs Ascoli stats
Arezzo and Ascoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Arezzo and Ascoli season so far
Arezzo record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ascoli record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
Arezzo vs Ascoli head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Arezzo vs Ascoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.3%, draw 29.4%, away 36.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.55 |