Empoli
vs
Juve Stabia
Garuda Lions Prediction: Empoli
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Empoli is the favourite, not a value bet.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Empoli vs Juve Stabia
| Probability | Empoli | Draw | Juve Stabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 31.6% | 40.0% |
| Market | 39.5% | 28.7% | 31.9% |
| Final | 36.7% | 29.4% | 33.9% |
| Edge | -2.8% | +0.7% | +2.0% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (our 36.7% × 2.36 − 1).
Empoli vs Juve Stabia match preview
Empoli faces Juve Stabia in a Serie B clash with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Empoli has struggled lately, recording one win in their last six matches (L-D-L-L-L-W), while Juve Stabia has been more consistent, with two wins and four draws in their last six (W-W-D-D-D-L). The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Empoli at 37%, a draw at 29%, and Juve Stabia at 34%.
The expected goals suggest a tight match, with Empoli projected at 0.98 and Juve Stabia at 1.21. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-0 in favor of Empoli, with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% probability of both teams scoring. In their last two encounters, Juve Stabia has won both matches against Empoli.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Empoli and Juve Stabia expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.19
Empoli and Juve Stabia attack and defence ratings
Empoli
Juve Stabia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Empoli vs Juve Stabia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Empoli | 36.7% | 2.73 | -2.8% | 2.36 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Empoli | 36.7% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Juve Stabia | 33.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Empoli win | 10.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.5% | |
| Loss | 71.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-1 | 12.2% |
Empoli vs Juve Stabia stats
Empoli and Juve Stabia recent form
| Empoli |
LDLLLW |
| Juve Stabia |
WWDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Empoli and Juve Stabia season so far
Empoli record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juve Stabia record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-11 | Empoli | Juve Stabia | Italy Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-13 | Juve Stabia | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Empoli vs Juve Stabia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 28.7%, away 31.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.25 | 2.92 |