Cesena
vs
Empoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cesena
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cesena is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cesena vs Empoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cesena vs Empoli
| Probability | Cesena | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 29.6% | 22.8% |
| Market | 44.3% | 27.3% | 28.5% |
| Final | 45.1% | 27.8% | 27.1% |
| Edge | +0.8% | +0.6% | -1.4% |
Why Cesena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.91.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 45.1% × 2.14 − 1).
Cesena vs Empoli match preview
Cesena will host Empoli in a Serie B clash on October 27, 2026. According to our model, Cesena has a 43% probability of winning, while Empoli stands at 27%, with a 30% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Cesena, which has an 11% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Cesena will generate 1.38, compared to Empoli's 1.05.
Recent form shows Cesena with a mixed bag of results, recording four draws and one win in their last five matches, while Empoli has struggled, with one win and four losses in the same period. In their last two encounters, Cesena has not secured a victory, with one draw and one loss against Empoli. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cesena and Empoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.32
Cesena and Empoli attack and defence ratings
Cesena
Empoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cesena vs Empoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 45.1% | 2.22 | +0.8% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 45.1% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Empoli | 27.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cesena win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.1% |
Cesena vs Empoli stats
Cesena and Empoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cesena and Empoli season so far
Cesena record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
Empoli record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cesena vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Empoli | Cesena | Italy Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Cesena | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cesena vs Empoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.3%, draw 27.3%, away 28.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.40 | 3.26 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .