Benevento
vs
Catanzaro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benevento
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.17.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Benevento vs Catanzaro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benevento vs Catanzaro
| Probability | Benevento | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.2% | 20.6% | 17.2% |
| Market | 48.6% | 25.7% | 25.7% |
| Final | 52.0% | 24.4% | 23.6% |
| Edge | +3.4% | -1.3% | -2.1% |
Why Benevento
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Benevento below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.9% per unit staked (our 52.0% × 1.96 − 1).
Benevento vs Catanzaro match preview
Benevento enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 62%, while Catanzaro has a lower chance at 17%. The expected goals for Benevento stand at 2.33, compared to Catanzaro's 1.17, suggesting a potentially dominant performance from the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring with a 10% probability.
In terms of recent form, Benevento has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Catanzaro has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings. The model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 63%, further emphasizing the potential for an engaging match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benevento and Catanzaro expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Benevento and Catanzaro attack and defence ratings
Benevento
Catanzaro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benevento vs Catanzaro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 52.0% | 1.92 | +3.4% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win | 40.9% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 52.0% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Catanzaro | 23.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win | 40.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 37.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Benevento vs Catanzaro stats
Benevento and Catanzaro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benevento and Catanzaro season so far
Benevento record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Catanzaro record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benevento vs Catanzaro head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Benevento vs Catanzaro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.6%, draw 25.7%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.70 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .