Virtus Entella
vs
Avellino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Virtus Entella
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Virtus Entella is the favourite, not a value bet.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Virtus Entella vs Avellino
| Probability | Virtus Entella | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 28.0% | 24.2% |
| Market | 45.6% | 28.5% | 25.9% |
| Final | 46.1% | 28.4% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.1% | -0.4% |
Why Virtus Entella
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.03.
Best available price on the pick: 2.08, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (our 46.1% × 2.08 − 1).
Virtus Entella vs Avellino match preview
Virtus Entella hosts Avellino in a Serie B clash with a forecast favoring the home side slightly at 48% probability for a win, compared to Avellino's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with an 11% chance. Expected goals suggest Virtus Entella is projected to score 1.54, while Avellino is at 1.03.
In terms of recent form, Virtus Entella has recorded one win in their last six matches, with a mix of draws and a loss. Conversely, Avellino has shown stronger form, with three wins in their last six outings. Historically, Avellino has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, winning both matches against Virtus Entella. The probability of both teams scoring stands at 52%, indicating a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Virtus Entella and Avellino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Virtus Entella and Avellino attack and defence ratings
Virtus Entella
Avellino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Virtus Entella vs Avellino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 46.1% | 2.17 | +0.6% | 2.08 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 46.1% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Avellino | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.7% |
| No | 48.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Virtus Entella win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Virtus Entella vs Avellino stats
Virtus Entella and Avellino recent form
| Virtus Entella |
WDDWDL |
| Avellino |
DWLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Virtus Entella and Avellino season so far
Virtus Entella record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avellino record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Virtus Entella | Avellino | Italy Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-27 | Avellino | Virtus Entella | Italy Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Virtus Entella vs Avellino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.6%, draw 28.5%, away 25.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.56 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 3.35 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .