Avellino
vs
Pisa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pisa
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Pisa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Avellino vs Pisa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Avellino vs Pisa
| Probability | Avellino | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.7% | 26.9% | 26.4% |
| Market | 30.3% | 29.1% | 40.6% |
| Final | 34.4% | 28.5% | 37.1% |
| Edge | +4.1% | -0.5% | -3.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -15.1% per unit staked (our 37.1% × 2.29 − 1).
Avellino vs Pisa match preview
Avellino will host Pisa in an intriguing Serie B clash on November 1, 2026. According to our model, Avellino has a 34% chance of winning, while Pisa stands at 37%, with a 29% probability of a draw. The expected goals for Avellino are 1.62, compared to Pisa's 1.17, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%.
In terms of recent form, Avellino's last five matches show a mixed record of L-D-W-L-D-W, while Pisa has experienced a D-W-W-D-L-L streak. Our model indicates a 53% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will score, highlighting the potential for an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Avellino and Pisa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Avellino and Pisa attack and defence ratings
Avellino
Pisa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Avellino vs Pisa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 37.1% | 2.70 | -3.6% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Avellino | 34.4% |
| Draw | 28.5% | |
| Pisa | 37.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.6% |
| No | 43.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win | 11.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.3% | |
| Loss | 73.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 8.7% |
Avellino vs Pisa stats
Avellino and Pisa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Avellino and Pisa season so far
Avellino record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pisa record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avellino vs Pisa head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Avellino vs Pisa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.3%, draw 29.1%, away 40.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.07 | 3.20 | 2.29 |