Benevento
vs
Avellino
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benevento
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Benevento is the favourite, not a value bet.
Benevento vs Avellino overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Benevento vs Avellino
| Probability | Benevento | Draw | Avellino |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 28.8% | 27.1% |
| Market | 50.5% | 26.4% | 23.1% |
| Final | 48.9% | 27.0% | 24.1% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% |
Why Benevento
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.6% per unit staked (our 48.9% × 1.91 − 1).
Benevento vs Avellino match preview
Benevento enters this matchup with a probability of 48% to win, while Avellino stands at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Benevento, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Benevento are 1.55, compared to Avellino's 1.04, indicating a slight edge for the home side in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Benevento has recorded a sequence of results including two wins and two draws in their last five matches. Conversely, Avellino's recent performances show a draw, two losses, and a solitary win, suggesting some inconsistency. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals stand at 48%, while both teams scoring is forecasted at 52%, hinting at a potentially competitive encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Benevento and Avellino expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Benevento and Avellino attack and defence ratings
Benevento
Avellino
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Benevento vs Avellino markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 48.9% | 2.05 | -1.6% | 1.91 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 48.9% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Avellino | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win | 22.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Benevento vs Avellino stats
Benevento and Avellino recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Benevento and Avellino season so far
Benevento record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Avellino record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benevento vs Avellino head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-30 | Avellino | Benevento | Serie C - Girone C | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-17 | Benevento | Avellino | Serie C - Girone C | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-15 | Avellino | Benevento | Serie C - Girone C | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-10 | Benevento | Avellino | Serie C - Girone C | 0-1 |
| 2017-05-01 | Benevento | Avellino | Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2016-12-10 | Avellino | Benevento | Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Benevento vs Avellino odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 26.4%, away 23.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.55 | 4.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.55 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.55 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.55 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.90 | 3.53 | 4.19 |
| SBO | 1.88 | 3.10 | 3.39 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .