Carrarese
vs
Sampdoria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Carrarese
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.91.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Carrarese is the favourite, not a value bet.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Carrarese vs Sampdoria
| Probability | Carrarese | Draw | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.9% | 30.7% | 24.4% |
| Market | 38.6% | 29.0% | 32.4% |
| Final | 40.2% | 29.4% | 30.4% |
| Edge | +1.6% | +0.4% | -2.0% |
Why Carrarese
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (our 40.2% × 2.50 − 1).
Carrarese vs Sampdoria match preview
Carrarese faces Sampdoria in a Serie B matchup with a projected probability of 40% for a Carrarese win, while both a draw and a Sampdoria victory are estimated at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Carrarese, with an expected goals tally of 1.32 for Carrarese compared to 0.91 for Sampdoria.
In terms of recent form, Carrarese has recorded results of L-W-L-W-W-L, while Sampdoria shows W-L-D-L-L-W. The head-to-head record from the last two encounters indicates one win for each team. Additionally, there is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Carrarese and Sampdoria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Carrarese and Sampdoria attack and defence ratings
Carrarese
Sampdoria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Carrarese vs Sampdoria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 40.2% | 2.49 | +1.6% | 2.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 40.2% |
| Draw | 29.4% | |
| Sampdoria | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.1% |
| No | 54.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrarese win | 21.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 55.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Carrarese vs Sampdoria stats
Carrarese and Sampdoria recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Carrarese and Sampdoria season so far
Carrarese record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Sampdoria record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Carrarese | Sampdoria | Italy Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Sampdoria | Carrarese | Italy Serie B | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Carrarese vs Sampdoria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.6%, draw 29.0%, away 32.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.26 | 2.89 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.26 | 2.88 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.18 | 3.02 |
| SBO | 2.25 | 3.04 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .