Pisa
vs
Sudtirol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pisa
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Pisa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Pisa vs Sudtirol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pisa vs Sudtirol
| Probability | Pisa | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 28.6% | 27.0% |
| Market | 59.8% | 23.3% | 16.9% |
| Final | 55.9% | 24.6% | 19.4% |
| Edge | -3.8% | +1.3% | +2.5% |
Why Pisa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.5% per unit staked (our 55.9% × 1.60 − 1).
Pisa vs Sudtirol match preview
Pisa will face Sudtirol in a Serie B matchup, with our model assigning a 48% probability of a home win for Pisa, compared to 25% for Sudtirol and 27% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0 in favor of Pisa, with an expected goals tally of 1.61 for Pisa and 1.09 for Sudtirol.
In terms of recent form, Pisa has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Sudtirol has struggled with one win, three losses, and one draw in the same period. Our model indicates a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this forecast is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pisa and Sudtirol expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Pisa and Sudtirol attack and defence ratings
Pisa
Sudtirol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pisa vs Sudtirol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 55.9% | 1.79 | -3.8% | 1.60 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.9% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 55.9% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Sudtirol | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
Pisa vs Sudtirol stats
Pisa and Sudtirol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pisa and Sudtirol season so far
Pisa record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sudtirol record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Pisa vs Sudtirol head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-09 | Pisa | Sudtirol | Serie B | 3-3 |
| 2024-10-19 | Sudtirol | Pisa | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-05 | Pisa | Sudtirol | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2023-11-11 | Sudtirol | Pisa | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-04 | Pisa | Sudtirol | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2022-09-04 | Sudtirol | Pisa | Serie B | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pisa vs Sudtirol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.8%, draw 23.3%, away 16.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.05 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.05 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.58 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 4.05 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 4.08 | 5.79 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 3.58 | 4.82 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .