Ascoli
vs
Palermo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ascoli
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Ascoli vs Palermo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ascoli vs Palermo
| Probability | Ascoli | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.5% | 25.2% | 26.3% |
| Market | 32.9% | 28.0% | 39.0% |
| Final | 36.8% | 27.3% | 35.8% |
| Edge | +3.9% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
Why Ascoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.80 vs 1.28.
- The market prices Ascoli below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.94, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.2% per unit staked (our 36.8% × 2.94 − 1).
Ascoli vs Palermo match preview
Ascoli faces Palermo in a closely contested Serie B matchup, with Ascoli holding a 37% probability of victory compared to Palermo's 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Ascoli, with a 10% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to a high-scoring game, with a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% probability that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Ascoli with a mixed record of D-W-W-D-D-W, while Palermo is on a strong run, winning their last six matches. In their last eight encounters, Ascoli has secured one win, while Palermo has dominated with five victories and two draws. The expected goals indicate Ascoli at 1.80 and Palermo at 1.28, suggesting a competitive match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ascoli and Palermo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Ascoli and Palermo attack and defence ratings
Ascoli
Palermo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ascoli vs Palermo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 36.8% | 2.72 | +3.9% | 2.94 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 36.8% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Palermo | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.4% |
| No | 38.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 27.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 51.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.4% |
Ascoli vs Palermo stats
Ascoli and Palermo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ascoli and Palermo season so far
Ascoli record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Palermo record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Ascoli vs Palermo head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-05 | Palermo | Ascoli | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-16 | Ascoli | Palermo | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2023-01-29 | Ascoli | Palermo | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-27 | Palermo | Ascoli | Serie B | 2-3 |
| 2019-05-04 | Ascoli | Palermo | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2018-12-27 | Palermo | Ascoli | Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2018-02-27 | Palermo | Ascoli | Serie B | 4-1 |
| 2017-09-30 | Ascoli | Palermo | Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ascoli vs Palermo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 28.0%, away 39.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.85 | 3.34 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.45 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.35 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.46 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.34 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.43 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.75 | 3.33 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .