Cesena
vs
Catanzaro
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cesena
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cesena is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cesena vs Catanzaro overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cesena vs Catanzaro
| Probability | Cesena | Draw | Catanzaro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.7% | 25.9% | 24.4% |
| Market | 44.7% | 26.9% | 28.4% |
| Final | 45.9% | 26.7% | 27.4% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.3% | -1.0% |
Why Cesena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.15, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 2.15 − 1).
Cesena vs Catanzaro match preview
Cesena will host Catanzaro in a Serie B clash on November 7, 2026. According to our model, Cesena has a 49% probability of winning, while both a draw and a Catanzaro victory are each at 25%. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of Cesena, with an expected goals tally of 1.79 for Cesena and 1.23 for Catanzaro.
Recent form indicates that Cesena has drawn their last three matches, while Catanzaro's form shows one win in their last six games. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, each team has secured one win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cesena and Catanzaro expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Cesena and Catanzaro attack and defence ratings
Cesena
Catanzaro
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cesena vs Catanzaro markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 45.9% | 2.18 | +1.2% | 2.15 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cesena | 45.9% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Catanzaro | 27.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cesena win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 50.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
Cesena vs Catanzaro stats
Cesena and Catanzaro recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cesena and Catanzaro season so far
Cesena record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Catanzaro record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cesena vs Catanzaro head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Cesena | Catanzaro | Italy Serie B | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Catanzaro | Cesena | Italy Serie B | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-17 | Catanzaro | Cesena | Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Catanzaro | Cesena | Serie B | 4-2 |
| 2024-08-28 | Cesena | Catanzaro | Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cesena vs Catanzaro odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 26.9%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 3.52 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.04 | 3.52 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.47 | 3.47 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.06 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .