Sudtirol
vs
Cesena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sudtirol
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.69.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Sudtirol vs Cesena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sudtirol vs Cesena
| Probability | Sudtirol | Draw | Cesena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.0% | 29.4% | 16.6% |
| Market | 42.9% | 28.7% | 28.4% |
| Final | 45.7% | 28.8% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +2.8% | +0.2% | -2.9% |
Why Sudtirol
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sudtirol below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.8% per unit staked (our 45.7% × 2.17 − 1).
Sudtirol vs Cesena match preview
Sudtirol faces Cesena in a Serie B matchup with Sudtirol holding a 54% probability of winning, compared to Cesena's 16%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-0, occurring at a rate of 16%. Sudtirol's expected goals stand at 1.45, while Cesena's is significantly lower at 0.68, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
In terms of recent form, Sudtirol has recorded a mixed bag with two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Cesena has not won in their last six, with four draws and two losses. The head-to-head record shows Sudtirol has yet to secure a victory against Cesena, with one draw and one loss in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sudtirol and Cesena expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Sudtirol and Cesena attack and defence ratings
Sudtirol
Cesena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sudtirol vs Cesena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 45.7% | 2.19 | +2.8% | 2.17 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sudtirol | 45.7% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Cesena | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.0% |
| No | 61.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sudtirol win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.0% | |
| Loss | 46.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 16.0% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 13.0% |
Sudtirol vs Cesena stats
Sudtirol and Cesena recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sudtirol and Cesena season so far
Sudtirol record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Cesena record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Sudtirol vs Cesena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Cesena | Sudtirol | Italy Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Sudtirol | Cesena | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sudtirol vs Cesena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.9%, draw 28.7%, away 28.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.25 | 3.26 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .