Padova
vs
Sudtirol
Garuda Lions Prediction: Padova
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Padova is the favourite, not a value bet.
Padova vs Sudtirol overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Padova vs Sudtirol
| Probability | Padova | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.5% | 33.7% | 29.8% |
| Market | 40.6% | 29.0% | 30.4% |
| Final | 39.6% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +1.2% | -0.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.34 − 1).
Padova vs Sudtirol match preview
Padova will host Sudtirol in an upcoming Serie B clash, with our model assigning a 37% probability of a home win for Padova, while a draw stands at 34% and Sudtirol at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Padova, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Padova will net 1.05, compared to Sudtirol's 0.92, indicating a tight contest.
Recent form shows Padova struggling with three losses in their last five matches, alongside a draw and a single win. In contrast, Sudtirol has recorded two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five outings. The head-to-head record favors Sudtirol, who have one win and one draw in their last two encounters with Padova. Both teams to score is projected at 41%, while the chance of over 2.5 goals is at 32%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Padova and Sudtirol expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Padova and Sudtirol attack and defence ratings
Padova
Sudtirol
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Padova vs Sudtirol markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 39.6% | 2.53 | -1.0% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 39.6% |
| Draw | 30.2% | |
| Sudtirol | 30.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.5% |
| No | 59.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win | 14.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 63.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.2% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
Padova vs Sudtirol stats
Padova and Sudtirol recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Padova and Sudtirol season so far
Padova record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sudtirol record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Padova vs Sudtirol head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Sudtirol | Padova | Italy Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Padova | Sudtirol | Italy Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Padova vs Sudtirol odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.6%, draw 29.0%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.06 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .