Catanzaro
vs
Padova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Catanzaro
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Catanzaro is the favourite, not a value bet.
Catanzaro vs Padova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Catanzaro vs Padova
| Probability | Catanzaro | Draw | Padova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.8% | 27.8% | 36.4% |
| Market | 45.4% | 27.0% | 27.7% |
| Final | 43.0% | 27.2% | 29.9% |
| Edge | -2.4% | +0.2% | +2.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (our 43.0% × 2.05 − 1).
Catanzaro vs Padova match preview
Catanzaro and Padova are set to clash in Serie B, with Catanzaro holding a 43% probability of victory compared to Padova's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Catanzaro, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams show a tendency for goals, with over 2.5 goals expected at 53% and both teams to score at 58%.
In terms of recent form, Catanzaro has struggled with a record of L-D-L-L-W-L, while Padova has a mixed performance, registering W-L-L-L-W-L. The expected goals for the match are nearly even, with Catanzaro at 1.38 and Padova at 1.40. The last two encounters between the teams resulted in one win each, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Catanzaro and Padova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Catanzaro and Padova attack and defence ratings
Catanzaro
Padova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Catanzaro vs Padova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Catanzaro | 43.0% | 2.33 | -2.4% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Catanzaro | 43.0% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Padova | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.6% |
| No | 42.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Catanzaro win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 64.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Catanzaro vs Padova stats
Catanzaro and Padova recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Catanzaro and Padova season so far
Catanzaro record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Padova record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Catanzaro vs Padova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Padova | Catanzaro | Italy Serie B | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-19 | Catanzaro | Padova | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Catanzaro vs Padova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.4%, draw 27.0%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.45 | 3.36 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .