Modena
vs
Mantova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Modena
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Modena is the favourite, not a value bet.
Modena vs Mantova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Modena vs Mantova
| Probability | Modena | Draw | Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.7% | 24.4% | 24.9% |
| Market | 54.1% | 25.8% | 20.1% |
| Final | 53.3% | 25.4% | 21.3% |
| Edge | -0.9% | -0.3% | +1.2% |
Why Modena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.28.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 53.3% × 1.73 − 1).
Modena vs Mantova match preview
Modena faces Mantova in an intriguing Serie B clash, with Modena holding a slight edge in the probabilities at 51% to win, while both teams share a 24% chance of a draw or Mantova securing victory. The expected goals model suggests a scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Modena, with a 10% likelihood of this outcome. Both teams are likely to contribute to the score, as indicated by a 62% chance for both teams to score and for the match to feature over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Modena has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Mantova has shown a slightly better performance with three wins and two draws in their last six fixtures. Historically, Modena has dominated their recent encounters with Mantova, winning both of their last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Modena and Mantova expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Modena and Mantova attack and defence ratings
Modena
Mantova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Modena vs Mantova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 53.3% | 1.88 | -0.9% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 53.3% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Mantova | 21.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 49.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Modena vs Mantova stats
Modena and Mantova recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Modena and Mantova season so far
Modena record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mantova record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Modena vs Mantova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Modena | Mantova | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Mantova | Modena | Italy Serie B | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Modena vs Mantova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.1%, draw 25.8%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.58 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .