Virtus Entella
vs
Modena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Modena
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Modena is the favourite, not a value bet.
Virtus Entella vs Modena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Virtus Entella vs Modena
| Probability | Virtus Entella | Draw | Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.5% | 30.2% | 38.4% |
| Market | 32.1% | 29.0% | 38.9% |
| Final | 32.0% | 29.3% | 38.8% |
| Edge | -0.2% | +0.3% | -0.1% |
Why Modena
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.7% per unit staked (our 38.8% × 2.51 − 1).
Virtus Entella vs Modena match preview
In the upcoming Serie B match, Virtus Entella faces Modena with probabilities suggesting a competitive encounter. Virtus Entella has a 31% chance of winning, while Modena is slightly favored at 39%. The model predicts a close match, with the most likely scoreline being 0-1 in favor of Modena, which has a 10% probability. Expected goals statistics indicate Virtus Entella at 1.13 and Modena at 1.28, highlighting a potential edge for the visitors.
Recent form shows Virtus Entella struggling with a record of L-D-L-W-D-D, while Modena has been performing better with D-W-W-L-W-W. In their last two head-to-head meetings, both teams have secured one win each, indicating a balanced rivalry. The model also suggests a 43% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 50% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Virtus Entella and Modena expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Virtus Entella and Modena attack and defence ratings
Virtus Entella
Modena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Virtus Entella vs Modena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 38.8% | 2.58 | -0.1% | 2.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 32.0% |
| Draw | 29.3% | |
| Modena | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 61.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 10.3% | |
| 0-1 | 10.2% |
Virtus Entella vs Modena stats
Virtus Entella and Modena recent form
| Virtus Entella |
LDLWDD |
| Modena |
DWWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Virtus Entella and Modena season so far
Virtus Entella record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Modena record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Virtus Entella vs Modena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Virtus Entella | Modena | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Modena | Virtus Entella | Italy Serie B | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Virtus Entella vs Modena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 29.0%, away 38.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.25 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.13 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.25 | 2.48 |
| Marathonbet | 2.91 | 3.25 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.14 | 2.51 |
| SBO | 2.66 | 2.96 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .