Padova
vs
Empoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Padova
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.82.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Padova vs Empoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Padova vs Empoli
| Probability | Padova | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 27.4% | 18.2% |
| Market | 42.5% | 28.3% | 29.2% |
| Final | 45.5% | 28.1% | 26.5% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.2% | -2.8% |
Why Padova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 0.82.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Padova below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.3% per unit staked (our 45.5% × 2.25 − 1).
Padova vs Empoli match preview
Padova hosts Empoli in a Serie B clash with the home side holding a 56% probability of victory according to our model. Recent form shows Padova with two wins in their last six matches, while Empoli has struggled significantly, losing five of their last six fixtures. The expected goals suggest a strong advantage for Padova, with an expected total of 1.55 compared to Empoli's 0.73.
In terms of scoring, the most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Padova, with a 15% probability. Additionally, there is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% likelihood that both teams will score. The head-to-head record is balanced with each team having one win in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Padova and Empoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Padova and Empoli attack and defence ratings
Padova
Empoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Padova vs Empoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 45.5% | 2.20 | +3.0% | 2.25 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Padova | 45.5% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Empoli | 26.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Padova win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 11.3% |
Padova vs Empoli stats
Padova and Empoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Padova and Empoli season so far
Padova record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Empoli record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Padova vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Padova | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Empoli | Padova | Italy Serie B | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Padova vs Empoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 28.3%, away 29.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.32 | 3.19 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.23 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.32 | 3.18 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.32 | 3.33 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 3.04 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .