Juve Stabia
vs
Arezzo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juve Stabia
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.79.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juve Stabia is the favourite, not a value bet.
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Juve Stabia vs Arezzo
| Probability | Juve Stabia | Draw | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 26.8% | 16.7% |
| Market | 52.2% | 26.6% | 21.1% |
| Final | 53.3% | 26.7% | 20.0% |
| Edge | +1.1% | +0.1% | -1.1% |
Why Juve Stabia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.79.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 53.3% × 1.85 − 1).
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo match preview
Juve Stabia enters this match with a 56% probability of winning against Arezzo, who has a 17% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Juve Stabia, with a 13% likelihood. The expected goals for Juve Stabia stand at 1.65, while Arezzo is projected to score 0.81 goals.
Recent form shows Juve Stabia with a mixed record of L-W-W-D-D-D, while Arezzo has a more erratic performance, recording L-L-W-D-L-W. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 45%, and both teams scoring is slightly more probable at 46%. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Juve Stabia and Arezzo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.42
Juve Stabia and Arezzo attack and defence ratings
Juve Stabia
Arezzo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juve Stabia | 53.3% | 1.88 | +1.1% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juve Stabia | 53.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Arezzo | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juve Stabia win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 43.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.4% |
| 1-1 | 12.6% | |
| 2-0 | 11.9% |
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo stats
Juve Stabia and Arezzo recent form
| Juve Stabia |
DLWWDD |
| Arezzo |
DLLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Juve Stabia and Arezzo season so far
Juve Stabia record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arezzo record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.2%, draw 26.6%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.62 | 4.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.55 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.55 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.62 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.50 | 4.73 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.17 | 3.67 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .