Mantova
vs
Verona
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mantova
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mantova is the favourite, not a value bet.
Mantova vs Verona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mantova vs Verona
| Probability | Mantova | Draw | Verona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.2% | 26.2% | 37.6% |
| Market | 37.8% | 27.8% | 34.4% |
| Final | 37.4% | 27.4% | 35.2% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -0.4% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.7% per unit staked (our 37.4% × 2.55 − 1).
Mantova vs Verona match preview
Mantova faces Verona in an intriguing Serie B matchup, with our model assigning a 37% probability of a Mantova victory, while Verona stands at 36%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Mantova, occurring at an 8% likelihood. Both teams show a propensity for scoring, with 62% of simulations indicating that both will find the net.
In terms of expected goals, Mantova is projected to score 1.51, while Verona is slightly ahead with 1.55. Recent form suggests a mixed bag for Mantova, with their last five matches yielding two wins, two draws, and a loss. Verona, on the other hand, has shown stronger form with three wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five outings. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mantova and Verona expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.06
Mantova and Verona attack and defence ratings
Mantova
Verona
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mantova vs Verona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 37.4% | 2.68 | -0.4% | 2.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.8% | 1.57 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 37.4% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Verona | 35.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 17.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 63.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 2-1 | 8.3% |
Mantova vs Verona stats
Mantova and Verona recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mantova and Verona season so far
Mantova record
- They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Verona record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Mantova vs Verona head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mantova vs Verona odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.8%, draw 27.8%, away 34.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.38 | 2.67 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.47 | 3.38 | 2.67 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.41 | 2.83 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.05 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .