Verona
vs
Carrarese
Garuda Lions Prediction: Verona
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.98.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Verona is the favourite, not a value bet.
Verona vs Carrarese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Verona vs Carrarese
| Probability | Verona | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 26.5% | 20.7% |
| Market | 61.5% | 22.7% | 15.8% |
| Final | 59.3% | 23.6% | 17.1% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +1.0% | +1.2% |
Why Verona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.98.
Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.4% per unit staked (our 59.3% × 1.51 − 1).
Verona vs Carrarese match preview
Verona enters the match against Carrarese with a 59% probability of winning, reflecting their stronger position in the league. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Verona's expected goals stand at 1.68, while Carrarese's expected goals are lower at 0.98, indicating a potential advantage for the home team.
In terms of recent form, Verona has recorded two draws, a win, and two losses in their last five matches, while Carrarese's form shows one win and four losses. The model suggests a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% likelihood that both teams will score, indicating a competitive match could unfold. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Verona and Carrarese expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Verona and Carrarese attack and defence ratings
Verona
Carrarese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Verona vs Carrarese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 59.3% | 1.69 | -2.2% | 1.51 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 59.3% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Carrarese | 17.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Verona win | 29.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Verona vs Carrarese stats
Verona and Carrarese recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Verona and Carrarese season so far
Verona record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
Carrarese record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Verona vs Carrarese head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Verona vs Carrarese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.5%, draw 22.7%, away 15.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.10 | 5.86 |