Carrarese
vs
Arezzo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Carrarese
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.88.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Carrarese vs Arezzo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Carrarese vs Arezzo
| Probability | Carrarese | Draw | Arezzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 29.8% | 22.4% |
| Market | 38.7% | 29.3% | 32.0% |
| Final | 40.9% | 29.5% | 29.6% |
| Edge | +2.3% | +0.1% | -2.4% |
Why Carrarese
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.88.
- The market prices Carrarese below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (our 40.9% × 2.45 − 1).
Carrarese vs Arezzo match preview
Carrarese enters this match with a probability of 48% to win against Arezzo, who has a lower probability of 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Carrarese's expected goals stand at 1.40, while Arezzo is forecasted to score 0.88.
In terms of recent form, Carrarese has recorded two wins and three losses in their last six matches, along with one draw. Arezzo's recent performance includes two wins, one draw, and three losses. The probabilities for over 2.5 goals in the match are at 40%, with both teams expected to score at a rate of 45%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Carrarese and Arezzo expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Carrarese and Arezzo attack and defence ratings
Carrarese
Arezzo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Carrarese vs Arezzo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 40.9% | 2.44 | +2.3% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 40.9% |
| Draw | 29.5% | |
| Arezzo | 29.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrarese win | 23.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 13.1% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
Carrarese vs Arezzo stats
Carrarese and Arezzo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Carrarese and Arezzo season so far
Carrarese record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Arezzo record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Carrarese vs Arezzo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Carrarese vs Arezzo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 29.3%, away 32.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.41 | 3.15 | 2.92 |
| Dafabet | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .