Pisa
vs
Palermo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pisa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Pisa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Pisa vs Palermo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pisa vs Palermo
| Probability | Pisa | Draw | Palermo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.6% | 22.8% | 50.6% |
| Market | 40.9% | 27.3% | 31.8% |
| Final | 37.3% | 26.2% | 36.5% |
| Edge | -3.6% | -1.1% | +4.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.5% per unit staked (our 37.3% × 2.32 − 1).
Pisa vs Palermo match preview
Pisa and Palermo are set to clash in the Serie B on October 28, 2026. According to our model, both teams have an equal probability of winning at 37%, with a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Pisa, occurring with a 6% probability. Expected goals suggest that Pisa will score 1.50 while Palermo is projected to net 2.09.
In terms of recent form, Pisa has recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, while Palermo is in strong form with four wins and one draw in their last five games. Our model indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, both at 69%. The confidence grade for this matchup stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pisa and Palermo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.59
Pisa and Palermo attack and defence ratings
Pisa
Palermo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Pisa vs Palermo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 37.3% | 2.68 | -3.6% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pisa | 37.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Palermo | 36.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pisa win | 12.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.1% | |
| Loss | 73.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Pisa vs Palermo stats
Pisa and Palermo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pisa and Palermo season so far
Pisa record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Palermo record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Pisa vs Palermo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Pisa vs Palermo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 27.3%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.40 | 2.92 |
| Dafabet | 2.32 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .