Verona
vs
Pisa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Verona
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.48.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Verona vs Pisa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Verona vs Pisa
| Probability | Verona | Draw | Pisa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.8% | 22.5% | 25.7% |
| Market | 41.9% | 27.3% | 30.7% |
| Final | 44.4% | 26.1% | 29.5% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -1.2% | -1.3% |
Why Verona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.48.
- The market prices Verona below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.1% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.30 − 1).
Verona vs Pisa match preview
Verona and Pisa are set to face off in a Serie B match, with Verona holding a 45% probability of winning compared to Pisa's 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Verona, with an expected goals tally of 2.14 for Verona and 1.48 for Pisa. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with our model indicating a 69% likelihood that both will find the net and a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Verona has recorded two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches, while Pisa has a slightly stronger recent performance with three wins, one draw, and one loss. Historically, the last two encounters between these teams have resulted in two draws, with neither side managing a win. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Verona and Pisa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.61
Verona and Pisa attack and defence ratings
Verona
Pisa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Verona vs Pisa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 44.4% | 2.25 | +2.5% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Verona | 44.4% |
| Draw | 26.1% | |
| Pisa | 29.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% |
| No | 31.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Verona win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 48.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Verona vs Pisa stats
Verona and Pisa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Verona and Pisa season so far
Verona record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pisa record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Verona vs Pisa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Verona | Pisa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Pisa | Verona | Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Verona vs Pisa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 27.4%, away 30.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.23 | 3.45 | 3.01 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.26 | 3.45 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.21 | 3.45 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.46 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.13 | 3.10 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .