Catanzaro
vs
Ascoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ascoli
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Catanzaro vs Ascoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Catanzaro vs Ascoli
| Probability | Catanzaro | Draw | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 28.4% | 38.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 33.5% | 28.4% | 38.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ascoli
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Catanzaro vs Ascoli match preview
In the upcoming Serie B match, Catanzaro faces Ascoli with probabilities indicating a competitive encounter. Our model assigns a 33% chance of a Catanzaro victory, while Ascoli holds a slightly higher probability at 38%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals for Catanzaro is 1.29, compared to Ascoli's 1.39, suggesting a closely matched game.
Recent form shows Catanzaro struggling with two wins in their last six matches, while Ascoli has been more stable, recording two wins and four draws in the same period. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Ascoli, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Catanzaro and Ascoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Catanzaro and Ascoli attack and defence ratings
Catanzaro
Ascoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Catanzaro vs Ascoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 38.1% | 2.62 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Catanzaro | 33.5% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Ascoli | 38.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 61.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.5% | |
| 0-1 | 8.3% |
Catanzaro vs Ascoli stats
Catanzaro and Ascoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Catanzaro and Ascoli season so far
Catanzaro record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ascoli record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.