Virtus Entella
vs
Mantova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Virtus Entella
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Virtus Entella vs Mantova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Virtus Entella vs Mantova
| Probability | Virtus Entella | Draw | Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.3% | 25.3% | 28.4% |
| Market | 39.5% | 28.3% | 32.2% |
| Final | 41.2% | 27.5% | 31.2% |
| Edge | +6.8% | -3.0% | -3.8% |
Why Virtus Entella
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.36.
- The market prices Virtus Entella below the model: +6.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Virtus Entella vs Mantova match preview
Virtus Entella and Mantova are set to clash in a Serie B match where the probabilities suggest a competitive encounter. Virtus Entella has a 41% chance of winning, while Mantova's chances stand at 31%, with a 28% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Virtus Entella, which aligns with an expected goals tally of 1.77 for Entella and 1.36 for Mantova.
In terms of recent form, Virtus Entella has recorded one win, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, while Mantova has performed slightly better with three wins, two draws, and one loss. The model indicates a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance for both teams to score, suggesting an engaging match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Virtus Entella and Mantova expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Virtus Entella and Mantova attack and defence ratings
Virtus Entella
Mantova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Virtus Entella vs Mantova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 41.2% | 2.43 | +6.8% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Virtus Entella | 41.2% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Mantova | 31.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Virtus Entella win | 25.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Virtus Entella vs Mantova stats
Virtus Entella and Mantova recent form
| Virtus Entella |
WDDWDL |
| Mantova |
WDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Virtus Entella and Mantova season so far
Virtus Entella record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Mantova record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Virtus Entella vs Mantova head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Mantova | Virtus Entella | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Virtus Entella | Mantova | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Virtus Entella vs Mantova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.5%, draw 28.3%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.30 | 2.91 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.10 | 2.90 |