Modena
vs
Cesena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Modena
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Modena vs Cesena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Modena vs Cesena
| Probability | Modena | Draw | Cesena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.0% | 24.1% | 16.9% |
| Market | 57.5% | 23.4% | 19.1% |
| Final | 57.9% | 23.6% | 18.5% |
| Edge | +1.5% | +0.7% | -2.1% |
Why Modena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Modena vs Cesena match preview
Modena hosts Cesena in a Serie B clash on October 24, 2026. Modena holds a 58% probability of winning, with the most likely scoreline predicted at 2-0, occurring 11% of the time according to our model. The expected goals for Modena stand at 1.89, while Cesena is projected to score 0.93. Recent form shows Modena with two wins in their last five matches, while Cesena has drawn four of their last six games.
In their last two encounters, Modena has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Cesena. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 54%, and both teams scoring is projected at 52%. With a confidence grade of C, this matchup presents an intriguing contest between the two sides.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Modena and Cesena expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Modena and Cesena attack and defence ratings
Modena
Cesena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Modena vs Cesena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 57.9% | 1.73 | +1.5% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.0% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 57.9% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Cesena | 18.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 41.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-0 | 10.2% |
Modena vs Cesena stats
Modena and Cesena recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Modena and Cesena season so far
Modena record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cesena record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Modena vs Cesena head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Modena | Cesena | Italy Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Cesena | Modena | Italy Serie B | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Modena vs Cesena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.5%, draw 23.4%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.98 | 4.89 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.98 | 4.95 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.80 |