Vicenza Virtus
vs
Modena
Garuda Lions Prediction: Modena
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Modena is the favourite, not a value bet.
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Vicenza Virtus vs Modena
| Probability | Vicenza Virtus | Draw | Modena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.0% | 26.4% | 35.6% |
| Market | 31.9% | 27.1% | 41.0% |
| Final | 33.4% | 27.0% | 39.6% |
| Edge | +1.5% | -0.2% | -1.4% |
Why Modena
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.0% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.32 − 1).
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena match preview
Vicenza Virtus will host Modena in a Serie B clash with kickoff scheduled for October 27, 2026. According to our model, Vicenza Virtus has a 33% chance of winning, while Modena is favored with a 42% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to contribute to the scoreline, with a 63% likelihood that both will find the net.
Recent form shows Vicenza Virtus struggling with a sequence of draws and losses, recording D-L-L-D-D-L, while Modena has shown more resilience with a mixed record of L-W-W-D-L-W. Expected goals indicate Vicenza Virtus at 1.45 and Modena at 1.65, suggesting a competitive match with a strong possibility of over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Vicenza Virtus and Modena expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.02
Vicenza Virtus and Modena attack and defence ratings
Vicenza Virtus
Modena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Modena | 39.6% | 2.52 | -1.4% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vicenza Virtus | 33.4% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Modena | 39.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.8% |
| No | 38.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 60.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Modena win | 17.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.2% | |
| Loss | 64.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena stats
Vicenza Virtus and Modena recent form
| Vicenza Virtus |
WDLLDD |
| Modena |
LWWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Vicenza Virtus and Modena season so far
Vicenza Virtus record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Modena record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Vicenza Virtus vs Modena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.9%, draw 27.1%, away 41.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.92 | 3.40 | 2.28 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .