Mantova
vs
Cremonese
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mantova
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.11.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Mantova vs Cremonese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mantova vs Cremonese
| Probability | Mantova | Draw | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.0% | 24.7% | 21.3% |
| Market | 38.2% | 28.0% | 33.8% |
| Final | 42.1% | 27.2% | 30.7% |
| Edge | +4.0% | -0.8% | -3.1% |
Why Mantova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 1.11.
- The market prices Mantova below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.49, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.8% per unit staked (our 42.1% × 2.49 − 1).
Mantova vs Cremonese match preview
Mantova faces Cremonese in a Serie B clash, with Mantova holding a 54% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals suggest Mantova will score 1.87, while Cremonese is projected to net 1.11. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Mantova, with a 10% likelihood.
Both teams show a tendency for goals, as indicated by the 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% probability that both teams will score. Recent form sees Mantova with a mixed record of L-W-D-W-D-L, while Cremonese has been more consistent with L-D-D-D-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mantova and Cremonese expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Mantova and Cremonese attack and defence ratings
Mantova
Cremonese
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mantova vs Cremonese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 42.1% | 2.37 | +4.0% | 2.49 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.0% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 42.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Cremonese | 30.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 31.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 46.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Mantova vs Cremonese stats
Mantova and Cremonese recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mantova and Cremonese season so far
Mantova record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
Cremonese record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mantova vs Cremonese head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Mantova vs Cremonese odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.2%, draw 28.0%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.43 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.49 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .