Cremonese
vs
Benevento
Garuda Lions Prediction: Benevento
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.09.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Cremonese vs Benevento overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cremonese vs Benevento
| Probability | Cremonese | Draw | Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.4% | 28.4% | 45.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.4% | 28.4% | 45.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Benevento
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Cremonese vs Benevento match preview
Cremonese faces Benevento in a Serie B clash with both teams showing mixed recent form. Cremonese has recorded two losses and three draws in their last five matches, while Benevento has secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. According to our model, Cremonese has a 32% chance of winning, while Benevento holds a 39% probability of victory, with a 29% likelihood of the match ending in a draw.
The expected goals for the match indicate a closely contested game, with Cremonese projected to score 1.22 and Benevento 1.36. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Additionally, there is a 54% chance that both teams will score, and a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cremonese and Benevento expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
Cremonese and Benevento attack and defence ratings
Cremonese
Benevento
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cremonese vs Benevento markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benevento | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cremonese | 26.4% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Benevento | 45.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benevento win | 23.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 9.2% |
Cremonese vs Benevento stats
Cremonese and Benevento recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cremonese and Benevento season so far
Cremonese record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Benevento record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.