Garuda Lions
Today
Italy Serie B · ·Matchday 11

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

Garuda Lions Prediction: Cremonese

0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.10.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cremonese is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Cremonese

Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza

Vicenza Virtus 31%
Draw 29%
Cremonese 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Cremonese wins
40%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
91%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
52%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
10% of simulated outcomes

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVicenza VirtusDrawCremonese
Model27.5%28.7%43.8%
Market32.2%29.1%38.7%
Final31.0%29.0%40.0%
Edge-1.2%-0.1%+1.3%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Cremonese

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (our 40.0% × 2.46 − 1).

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese match preview

Vicenza Virtus faces Cremonese in a Serie B matchup with the probabilities indicating a 31% chance for a Vicenza win, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 40% chance for Cremonese to take the victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, occurring with a 10% probability. Expected goals suggest Vicenza Virtus will score 1.10, while Cremonese is forecasted to net 1.45.

In terms of recent form, Vicenza Virtus has struggled, recording two losses, one win, one draw, and two more losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Cremonese has shown better form with two wins, one loss, one draw, and two more draws in their recent outings. The model indicates a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability that both teams will score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vicenza Virtus ↓ / Cremonese → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 10% 8% 1 7% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 47%
No goals 9%

Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese expected goals

Vicenza Virtus 1.10
Cremonese 1.45

Total expected goals: 2.55

Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese attack and defence ratings

Vicenza Virtus

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Cremonese

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Italy Serie B

Before and after this match

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Cremonese 40.0% 2.50 +1.3% 2.46
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 53.2% 1.88 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.2% 1.91 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.0% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.2% 1.78 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vicenza Virtus31.0%
Draw29.0%
Cremonese40.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546.8%
Under 2.553.2%
Both teams to scoreYes52.2%
No47.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)60.0%
12 (either side)71.0%
X2 (draw or away)69.0%
Handicap -1Cremonese win22.0%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss56.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
0-110.1%
0-09.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese stats

Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese recent form

newest first
Vicenza Virtus LLWDLL
Cremonese WWLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese season so far

league record

Vicenza Virtus record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cremonese record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.2%, draw 29.1%, away 38.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.95 3.24 2.37
Bet365 2.88 3.10 2.45
BetVictor 2.80 3.25 2.30
Betano 2.95 3.30 2.45
Betfair 2.88 3.20 2.45
Dafabet 2.95 3.30 2.46
Marathonbet 2.94 3.24 2.35
Pinnacle 3.14 3.14 2.44
SBO 2.75 3.02 2.19
William Hill 2.88 3.10 2.40
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.91 ▲ +0.04
X 3.22 ▼ -0.03
2 2.42 ▲ +0.01

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Cremonese Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now