Palermo
vs
Vicenza Virtus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Palermo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 1.01.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus
| Probability | Palermo | Draw | Vicenza Virtus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.7% | 15.9% | 10.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 73.7% | 15.9% | 10.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Palermo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.79 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus match preview
Palermo enters the match against Vicenza Virtus with a strong probability of winning at 74%, bolstered by their recent form of four wins and a draw in their last six matches. The expected goals for Palermo stand at 2.79, indicating a potent attack, while Vicenza Virtus is projected to score only 1.01 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability.
Vicenza Virtus has had a mixed run recently, with one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six games. The model predicts a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 60% likelihood that both teams will score. This suggests an engaging contest, with Palermo favored to secure the victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palermo and Vicenza Virtus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.80
Palermo and Vicenza Virtus attack and defence ratings
Palermo
Vicenza Virtus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 73.7% |
| Draw | 15.9% | |
| Vicenza Virtus | 10.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.4% |
| No | 39.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 54.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 26.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
Palermo vs Vicenza Virtus stats
Palermo and Vicenza Virtus recent form
| Palermo |
WWWWDW |
| Vicenza Virtus |
WDLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Palermo and Vicenza Virtus season so far
Palermo record
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Vicenza Virtus record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.